Less humidity/clouds tomorrow (Friday). Hurricane Hilary unlikely to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Cali/MX border. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15 and ends on November 30. Impacts here in Oregon could be clouds, humidity, and maybe some showers on Monday and Tuesday - if the currently favored projected path is correct of where most of the leftover moisture treks (right now looks to remain east of the Cascades). We certainly won't see any hurricane or tropical storm winds from this system. But if any thunderstorms form around here on Mon/Tue, those, as always, could produce gusty winds. Again, lots of uncertainties right now with the track of Hilary - some model tracks have the remnants going into eastern Oregon but most project the remnants going through central Oregon.
Anyways...For us, we should get a break tomorrow (Friday) from the monsoon moisture and ridiculous humidity that's been affecting us over the last several days. But then Saturday, humidity may start increasing again along with some clouds and a brief warming trend (that will peak on Sunday before a little cooling on Monday). With leftovers from Hilary possibly affecting Oregon, as I mentioned above, humidity and clouds are expected to increase on Monday and Tuesday (but it won't be as hot as it has been). Too soon to say whether we'll get any rainfall. That's hot the cookie crumbles right now.
How HOT was it? Scroll down and check out the maps/charts for high temperatures since Sunday! On Monday's map, notice the 109° in Roseburg, 110° in Medford & Grants Pass, and 108° in Portland. Because of smoke overhead here, we only hit 100, otherwise we'd been around 105/106. Tuesday (yesterday), we hit 104 and today is shaping up to be 100-104. The chart with just two columns of numbers are the high and low temps HERE since Aug 1.
Cool down starts TOMORROW (Thurs) with highs 90-95. It then looks like the cool down bottoms out on Friday through the weekend with highs somewhere between 83-88. Weekend and early next week temps may be lower and I'll put up a post about that tomorrow or Friday about this. Night/morning marine clouds may start seeping in possibly tonight but more likely Thursday night into Friday morning. But hey, at least it's better than 100, right? Scroll down to see predicted temperatures over the next 10-days.
Smoke may also become less intrusive into our area starting tomorrow or Friday as those winds that are mostly blowing from an easterly direction switch to a more northwesterly direction. Fire danger rating is still at EXTREME, which is the highest level.
CURRENT FIRES POSE NO THREAT TO COTTAGE GROVE
SMOKE: Play the satellite image and you'll see the three fires that are currently burning to our east/northeast: The Lookout Fire, Bedrock Fire, and Salmon Fire. By far, the Bedrock fire is the largest at almost 20,000 acres right now (the other two are 300 acres or less). As you see in the animated image, smoke is blowing FROM the EAST and TO the WEST. That's why our local area is smoky with even some bits of ash falling.
WINDS will shift around over the next few days and blow from varying directions. This will result in differing amounts of smoke being blown into our area at times.
HEAT: As of 1:15pm today (Monday), we've already at 96°. We may reach 103-106, but the smoky skies may not allow high temps to climb above 100/101. Either way, it's hot AND HUMID which means the heat index (how it feels on our body) is running a little bit warmer.
TEMPERATURES: Today through Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week, then we'll cool down beginning Thursday and (fingers crossed) be in the low-mid 80's Saturday and Sunday. At this time, I'm not seeing signals of another heatwave after this week, so there's a good chance (but not 100%) that high temps for the rest of the month from the weekend onward should have highs 90° or below.
SATURDAY PATTERN CHANGE: A low pressure system or two is expected to affect the region and bring some showers and possible thunderstorms (mainly mountains). This may continue into early next week. We'll talk more about this on Thursday.
HEATWAVE UPDATE (Sunday):
VERY HOT: No matter which way you roll the dice, it's going to be hot with record or near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
RECORDS: Regarding records, high temps will likely set a new record for the specific DATE but not an all time record ever. The closest climate station is Eugene so we refer to those numbers when looking at records. Eugene's record high temps for Mon Aug 14, Tue Aug 15, and Wed Aug 16 are all 101° (set in 1899, 1902, and 1899, respectively). So highs in the low 100's this time of year is NOT common. Eugene's ALL TIME HIGH TEMP RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST is 108° set in 1981. The highest temperature in recorded history was 111° set in June 2021.
COOLING TREND begins Thursday but it will be most noticeable on Friday. Next weekend's high temps are expected to be closer to normal.
PATTERN CHANGE: It still looks like a pattern change will occur next weekend, but there's still some questions on how much influence low pressure systems will have to cause high temps to be in the upper 70's/low 80's vs low/mid 80's. Tropical Storm Fernanda (soon to be Hurricane Fernanda) is currently well southwest of the tip of Baja California. Although this is very far away from us, it will have some impact on the west coast weather pattern over the next 7-days so we'll be watching if any remnants interact with a low pressure system that's expected to develop offshore of Oregon later next weekend.
SMOKE & AIR QUALITY: Shifting winds will probably blow varying amounts of smoke into our area and allow for hazy skies with decreased air quality. This causes the heat effects on us to be worse due to poor air quality. Therefore, it's always best to avoid strenuous activities and stay indoors where it's cooler with air conditioning.
FIRE DANGER RATING IS AT EXTREME - the highest rating.
HEATWAVE UPDATE: The very latest data has increased probabilities for our area hitting 100° or higher Sunday through Wednesday. Hottest days should be Mon-Wed (101°-104° likely). Overnight lows will also be mild (see temperature chart).
FIRE DANGER RATING worsens from the current HIGH to EXTREME beginning Saturday. ODF's restriction chart is below.
GOOD NEWS is that data signals have been very consistent with this stubborn high pressure getting kicked out of the way by several low pressure systems beginning Saturday or Sunday Aug 19/20. At this time it doesn't look like any of these will bring showers to our are (may change), but we will certainly see cooler temperatures. Based on what I'm seeing with the expected pattern change down the road, I think we'll start seeing highs vary mainly between the upper 70's to low 80's as early as Sunday Aug 20 (could still see a few days here and there in the middle 80's).
STATISTICS: The last time we had high temps over 100° was back on August 12, 2021. Remember our record breaking 108° on June 27, 2021? Last year (2022) we hit 100° only once and just had a couple of days at 98/99. We haven't had any 100° days yet this year, but that's obviously going to change in a few days. If you think this summer has been unusually warm and humid, you're not wrong. Since June 1, high temps have been at or below normal just 8 days (11%). In other words 89% (63 days out of 71) of high temperatures this summer have been above normal! *Meteorological Summer is June 1-Aug 31.
ANIMAL SAFETY: Sadly, dog houses become ovens in the sun and is therefore inadequate shelter. Animals need access to full shade such as inside the house or a large fully shaded area that's not enclosed. And fresh, cool water (outside water bowls get hot fairly quick). The pavement will easily exceed 135-160° from noon to 7pm. At 125° skin destruction on paws occur in less than 60 seconds. Before walking fido, feel the pavement for 7-seconds with your hands or bare feet. If it's too hot for you, then it's magnified 10x for them.
NEXT FEW DAYS: You'd never know it because high temps will still be warm (mid-upper 80's), but a couple of weak low pressure systems will pass through the region over the next few days. The first one passed through this morning and the next one is due to arrive early Wednesday morning. So expect varying amounts of passing clouds at times but no rain.
HEATWAVE TIMELINE: High pressure begins to build back in on Thursday. This means high temperatures will only go up each day, with an extended heatwave expected Friday through the end of next week (Aug 19, as it looks now).
HOW HOT? Highs in the mid 90's to around 100° will be common starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through most or all of next week! The good news is that data predictions have slightly backed off on how hot it will get (now upper 90's to around 100 vs 100-104 a few days ago).
SMOKE from regional fires may be blown into our area at times as winds shift around. This would cause our air quality to decrease.
HOT PAVEMENT (over 125°) FOR PAWS during the afternoon and evening. An easy way to tell if the pavement is safe for your dog's paws is to hold your hand on it for 7 seconds. If it's too hot for you, it's too hot for them. Skin destruction on the paws can occur in less than 60 seconds! Morning or late evening walks are best since pavement will be much cooler (before 11am or after 7pm).
You're not wrong: there were a few light showers last night at around 1:45am-3:30am. Monsoonal moisture has been drawn into our area due to the position of high pressure to our east. Since winds around high pressure spin clockwise, it's in a perfect position to draw up monsoon moisture from the desert southwest.
For today and Saturday, we'll have varying amounts of passing clouds along with a very small chance of a light shower or rumble of thunder. Higher chances exist from the Cascades eastward.
It's yucky warm outside due to the increased humidity. This is expected to continue through Saturday or Sunday.
A change is in store for early next week. Looks like a couple of weak low pressure systems will pass through from the northwest Monday-Wednesday. This should give us a little refreshment with air exchange by kicking out the humidity after these systems pass through. We'll also have some clouds. It's certainly possible that a light shower or two can be squeezed out on Wednesday, otherwise no rain is expected. Temperatures will also cool a little, but still be warm. The "coolest" day looks to be Wednesday with highs upper 70's to about 80.
HEATWAVE: Unfortunately, high temperatures later next week are expected to rapidly warm. On Friday (Aug 11) we'll be around 90 and may possibly reach 100° beginning Sunday and/or Monday (Aug 13-14) and continuing through Wed Aug 16. We'll talk more about this next week as better data comes in and accuracy improves on predicted temperatures. Not trying to hype, but the computer models have been consistently predicting this for several days now so we cannot ignore the possibility.
Our hottest day of the year so far was 97° on July 15. If the above talked about heatwave occurs as currently expected, then Aug 14-16 will likely be warmer than July 15.
High temps will top out at 85-90 through Friday, then are expected to warm into the low 90's for next weekend (our normal high is 84).
Mountain thunderstorm chances increase for Thursday through Saturday, so if you're heading the Cascades around this time be mindful of this possibility.
The Bedrock Fire is still burning north of Lowell and east of Oakridge. As winds shift around throughout the week, some smoke could be blown into our area. This fire poses no threat to our local area.
Starting to see some hints that showers may come into the picture sometime around August 7-11. Let's see how data trends over the next few days before we get excited about any potential rainfall here. Fire danger needle continues to point to HIGH.
Friday Weather Update: Winds shifted overnight to blowing from an easterly direction. This transported smoke from the Bedrock Fire (northeast of Lowell, west of Oakridge) into our area. The Fire is currently at 8200 acres, is zero percent contained, and poses no threat to our local area. The satellite image shows the smoke initially being blown to the west. THEN notice this afternoon the smoke reversing course and blowing to the east as the wind direction shifts to coming from the west. Over the next 5-7 days, winds will shift at times and may therefore blow varying amounts of smoke into our area.
High temperatures Sat/Sun are expected to be in the lower 80's (right around normal). There may be some night and morning marine clouds. If this occurs, it'll burn off by about 10am. It's looking like next week will warm to 85-90 with low 90's then possible the following weekend (Aug 5-6), as high pressure strengthens. At this time, no rain in sight. Fire danger rating continues to be high.
Friday's satellite image from about 8:00am to 4:10pm. Notice the smoke initially being blown from east to west then begins to shift, as winds change direction, to be blown from west to east.
Wednesday Weather Update: Near normal temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the week and weekend (normal high/low is 84/51). Winds will remain light with afternoon and evening breezes remaining at 10 mph or less. Night/morning marines clouds may move in at times and erode by 9-10am.
Next week will be warmer, with highs probably starting to creep up into the lower 90's on Tuesday or Wednesday. Odds favor above normal temperatures August 1-10, which means that highs around 90/low 90's are a good bet (at least how it looks right now). No rain is seen at this time over the next 10-14 days.
The Fire Danger Rating needle continues to point to HIGH.